Prabowo's approval slides as Indonesia's governing capacity comes under scrutiny
Two years into President Prabowo Subianto's term, his approval rating has fallen to 44.5 percent from 81.2 percent in November 2025, according to Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC). In an opinion article for The Jakarta Post, Adisti Sukma Sawitri argues that his welfare ambitions and institutional overhaul have exceeded his administration's ability to carry them out.
Public dissatisfaction extends beyond free meals
Prabowo entered office in October 2024 pledging to eliminate poverty, broaden welfare provision and increase state control of natural resources. Sawitri's assessment is that the problem is not a lack of government activity, but a mismatch between the scope of his agenda and the state's ability to deliver. She argues for more accountable institutions, consistent rules and credible enforcement of the law rather than additional institutions.
SMRC's October 1-10, 2026, survey found dissatisfaction across several areas. About 62 percent of respondents were unhappy with the free meals program, while 71.4 percent doubted that Prabowo's village cooperatives policy would succeed, according to The Edge Malaysia's report on the poll.
Of the 1,213 people surveyed, 50.8 percent described economic conditions as bad, and 43.1 percent said conditions had deteriorated from the previous year. High staple-food prices topped the list of problems respondents cited, ahead of corruption and poverty. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.
Free meals expand amid safety and governance failures
The Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program, a flagship pledge serving schoolchildren and expectant mothers, had reached more than 57 million beneficiaries by September 30, 2026. Government Communications Agency (Bakom) Deputy Kurnia Ramadhana said it operated through 27,486 Nutrition Fulfillment Service Units (SPPGs) across all 38 provinces, ANTARA News reported.
By that date, the program had spent Rp153.2 trillion, about $8.49 billion, from the state budget. That represented 66.9 percent of its Rp229 trillion allocation. The government's target for 2027 is 72,464,886 beneficiaries.
Sawitri describes systemic corruption and widespread food safety scandals as obstacles to the program. The National Nutrition Agency (BGN), which oversees it, has undergone three leadership changes in six months, and a former chief faces criminal prosecution, she writes. Separately, The Edge Malaysia's report on the October SMRC survey cited food poisoning cases affecting more than 50,000 people, along with allegations of corruption and poor governance.
In October, Ramadhana said BGN had temporarily halted operations at 1,276 MBG kitchens because they lacked hygiene and sanitation certificates. The suspensions were part of an effort to tighten food safety standards.
A broader civilian role for security forces
Prabowo's restructuring has also expanded the military's and police's domestic responsibilities. Sawitri writes that he has drawn on state-led development approaches in China and Singapore, using his House of Representatives majority to change laws and enlist security personnel in civilian programs.
Those assignments include delivering school meals, operating special schools for disadvantaged and gifted students, and leading enforcement actions against illegal mines and plantations. In Sawitri's assessment, expanding the security institutions' roles has intensified friction among agencies.
One change came on June 9, 2026, when Parliament approved revisions to the national police law. According to The Straits Times, serving officers may now take civilian government posts without leaving the force if those jobs relate to police tasks and functions. The revisions also raised the mandatory retirement age by one year for police officers, including the national chief.
The law contradicts a 2025 Constitutional Court ruling requiring officers to resign before taking jobs outside the police force, the report said.
Danantara's investment plans meet market turbulence
Prabowo has placed control of state-owned enterprises under Danantara, a state asset fund loosely based on Singapore's Temasek. Established through Law No. 1 of 2025, enacted on February 24, 2025, Danantara manages roughly $900 billion-plus in assets and controls a majority of state-owned enterprise equity, according to a Legal 500 guide by Nusantara Legal Partnership.
Its 2026 Corporate Work Plan and Budget sets a target of up to $14 billion in investment placements, financed mainly through dividends from companies in its portfolio. The plan was presented to the House's Finance and Investment Commission on December 1, 2025. Reported co-investment commitments with foreign sovereign wealth funds total roughly $45 billion.
On October 12, 2026, chief investment officer Pandu Sjahrir said Danantara planned to put $5 billion into Indonesian businesses over the following six to nine months, Fortune reported.
Three days later, on October 15, MSCI proposed moving Indonesia from emerging-market to standalone status. The proposal sent the Jakarta Composite Index down 11.6 percent, leaving the index down just over 40 percent for the year.