Indonesia heads to COP31 defending climate pledges as fires threaten land-use goals
Indonesia is defending its climate commitments ahead of next week's UN talks in Türkiye, even as soaring wildfire emissions put its land-use strategy under pressure. Environment Minister Jumhur Hidayat said the country's climate efforts must also protect its development priorities.
Energy and financing on the negotiating agenda
At a news conference Wednesday, Jumhur presented six priorities for Indonesia's COP31 negotiations. They include a faster energy transition and greater access to climate financing, but he emphasized that development must not be sacrificed to climate ambition.
"Our priorities are energy affordability, workers' welfare and protection of local communities. We also oppose unilateral measures that disadvantage developing countries," Jumhur said.
Indonesia has submitted its second Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the climate pledge required under the 2015 Paris Agreement. It sets out pathways for cutting greenhouse gas emissions through 2060.
Fires challenge the planned land-use carbon sink
Indonesia's strategy relies heavily on cutting emissions from forestry and other land use, known as FOLU. Preventing forest and peatland fires is part of the effort to make the sector a net carbon sink by 2030, absorbing more greenhouse gases than it emits.
Climate Action Tracker says the FOLU Net Sink 2030 target calls for net negative emissions of 140 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent in 2030 and 304 million metric tons in 2050. Presidential Regulation No. 98/2021 provides the legal basis, while Minister of Environment and Forestry Decree No. 168/2022 establishes the FOLU Net Sink 2030 Operational Plan.
Fire emissions had already reached 76.2 megatonnes of carbon by late August 2026, according to Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) data reported by The Jakarta Post. That represented roughly one-third of the global total and was comparable to a year's emissions from nearly 74 coal-fired power plants. Monitoring platform Nusantara Atlas put the burned area at nearly 900,000 hectares, about four times Tokyo's size.
The 2026 emissions exceeded those recorded over the same period in 2019, though they remained below 2015 levels. CAMS senior scientist Mark Parrington told The Jakarta Post that the year "may finish above 2019 but below 2015," cautioning that this was a huge assumption.
WALHI, an environmental group, reported separate estimates in a September 8, 2026, statement. It put emissions from burned vegetation between January and early September at approximately 31 million metric tons of CO2. The statement also cited Copernicus satellite heat-detection data showing fire emissions of 65.18 megatonnes of carbon, equivalent to about 239 million metric tons of CO2.
For the January-July period, Climate Action Tracker reported about 286,000 hectares burned nationwide. Around 68,000 hectares of that total were inside industrial concessions.
Deforestation and the wider emissions outlook
Forest loss is another challenge for Indonesia's land-use goals. Citing Auriga Nusantara data, Climate Action Tracker reported approximately 434,000 hectares of deforestation in 2025, up 66% from 2024. All major islands recorded increases.
Climate Action Tracker gives Indonesia's climate policies and actions a rating of "Highly insufficient." Excluding land use, land-use change and forestry, it projects 2030 emissions of 1,494 to 1,509 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent, between 51% and 53% above 2019 levels. It warns that following Indonesia's approach could result in global warming of more than 3°C and up to 4°C.
COP31 will assess progress under the Paris Agreement
The 31st UN Climate Change Conference is scheduled for November 9-20, 2026, in Antalya, Türkiye. Türkiye will host and preside over the meeting, with Australia leading negotiations in close cooperation with Pacific Island countries.
The talks will seek to advance implementation of the 2015 Paris Agreement and its goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. A UN climate report released October 21 warned that temperatures would likely breach that threshold in the coming years and called on countries to minimize both the extent and duration of the overshoot.
According to UN News, COP31 will also begin the second global stocktake, the Paris Agreement's formal assessment of collective progress toward its long-term goals.