Rain eases Indonesia's fire crisis, but prolonged El Niño risk remains

Showers offer relief, not a seasonal turning point

In Palembang, South Sumatra, residents welcomed rain after weeks of dangerous air pollution and poor visibility. Firefighters in Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan, fell to their knees as a downpour helped extinguish fires they had battled for months. Greater Jakarta also received rain after prolonged heat and a drought that drained reservoirs and threatened its clean water supply.

Meteorologists linked the showers to temporary weather patterns, including Super Typhoon Champi's landfall in Taiwan and moisture arriving from Australia that supported cloud formation. Champi broke up soon after reaching Taiwan's central mountain range.

El Niño is expected to exert a much longer influence. The Jakarta Post editorial cited sea surface temperatures more than 3 degrees Celsius above normal in the east-central Pacific and projections that dry conditions could continue across Indonesia well into early 2027, pushing back the regular monsoon.

A separate outlook from Indonesia's meteorology agency, BMKG, appeared in the Muhammadiyah Disaster Management Center's Oct. 21, 2026, situation overview. BMKG reported a very strong El Niño, with a Niño 3.4 anomaly of +2.83, alongside a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. Those conditions had delayed the rainy season's arrival in 61 percent of the country. The agency expected peak rainfall only between December 2026 and January 2027, leaving several more weeks of fire and haze risk.

The editorial warned that central and regional governments should not let temporary rain displace reforms intended to prevent fires. With hot spots still appearing in satellite observations, it said emergency crews would face intensive firefighting again in the coming months unless sustained rain arrived.

The damage on the ground

Forestry Ministry figures reported by Reuters on Sept. 1 put the area burned from January through July 2026 at about 200,000 hectares. The January-June total had been 107,465 hectares.

By its Oct. 21 report, MDMC had recorded 7,678 hot spots and 176 confirmed fire spots across six provinces in Sumatra and Kalimantan. Six provinces had air quality classified as hazardous, while Kutai Barat's Air Pollution Standard Index reached 500.

The health toll also grew. Indonesia's Health Ministry reported more than 50,000 acute respiratory infection cases in seven provinces during July and August. By mid-October, The Straits Times put the number of respiratory illness cases in seven provinces at 283,270.

Firefighting operations have also proved deadly. Four people taking part in the response at Bromo Tengger Semeru National Park in East Java died in a forest fire on Oct. 15, 2026. Two others sustained serious burns, according to the Forestry Ministry's account reported by The Straits Times.

Enforcement and demands for a stronger response

Forestry Minister Raja Juli Antoni said on Sept. 1 that individuals or corporations had deliberately started a large share of the fires. Reuters reported that satellite images identified 42 companies whose concessions had high wildfire potential. Authorities had fined six forestry permit holders, and the ministry said a criminal investigation remained possible.

Public frustration over the response brought demonstrators onto the streets in October. Protests took place in Palembang on Oct. 5, Jambi on Oct. 8 and Riau on Oct. 13, followed on Oct. 15 by demonstrations in Central Kalimantan towns including Pangkalan Bun and Palangka Raya. Demands included a national disaster declaration, stronger action against companies and better health support.

A separate Palembang protest on Oct. 13 turned violent. Two journalists, two students and a police officer were injured, according to The Straits Times.

Despite repeated appeals from affected communities, the central government had not declared a national disaster as of mid-October. Newly appointed National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) chief Kristomei Sianturi said on Oct. 15 that officials would assess whether such a declaration was warranted. He emphasized that an effective response was the priority.

Regional cooperation and the next phase

The smoke had already prompted a regional warning before the latest rain. The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre increased its haze alert to Level 3 on Aug. 26 as smoke from Kalimantan hot spots crossed borders, according to an ABC Asia analysis published Sept. 9.

The Jakarta Post editorial called on Jakarta to set aside national pride and activate ASEAN's haze pact before the fires became still harder to control. ASEAN adopted the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution in 2002; Indonesia deposited its ratification in 2015, becoming the last member to ratify it. Analysts cited by ABC Asia say the agreement's mechanisms remain constrained by the sovereignty and non-interference principles associated with the "ASEAN Way."

MDMC has launched a 100-Day Action Plan scheduled to run from Nov. 1, 2026, through Feb. 8, 2027. Its work covers firefighting, clean-air health services, water filtration and peatland restoration.