Indonesia cuts 2026 growth forecast as KSSK reports stable financial conditions

Growth outlook revised

Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara said the new growth projection replaced the committee's August forecast of 5.6-6.0 percent.

According to ANTARA FOTO's account of the event, KSSK attributed the continued stability to close coordination among authorities and consistent GDP growth. It also reported improvement in the financial sector entering October 2026.

Interest rates, inflation and the rupiah

Bank Indonesia Governor Destry Damayanti said the central bank had left its BI-Rate at 5.75 percent, its Deposit Facility rate at 5.00 percent and its Lending Facility rate at 6.50 percent. The decision aimed to keep inflation within the target of 2.5 percent, plus or minus 1 percentage point.

The central bank reported that inflation edged down from 3.28 percent in September to 3.23 percent in October. Indonesia recorded a $10.61 billion trade surplus over January-September 2026, while foreign exchange reserves at the end of September totaled $146.3 billion, enough to cover 5.3 months of imports.

Bank Indonesia also reported that the rupiah had weakened to Rp 18,145 per U.S. dollar on November 2. It said it was optimizing intervention across the spot market, DNDF and overseas NDF, while expanding Local Currency Transaction cooperation with seven partner countries. Transactions under that cooperation had reached $52.6 billion.

Stock market reform and fundraising

Friderica Widyasari Dewi, chairwoman of the Financial Services Authority (OJK) Board of Commissioners, linked the sharp decline in the IHSG stock index in part to an October 16 release from MSCI Inc. The release considered moving Indonesia's stock market from Emerging Market to Standalone Market status. Friderica described OJK's current reform effort as the largest in the capital market's history.

Capital-market fundraising totaled Rp 205.77 trillion through October, she said. The pipeline included 25 planned offerings with an indicative value of about Rp 26 trillion, while the full-year fundraising target was about Rp 250 trillion.

Friderica also reported Rp 2.1 trillion in sanctions imposed on three issuers: PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk (BREN) and PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk (CUAN). OJK announced those sanctions on October 16, 2026.

Deposit protection and bank liquidations

Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS) Board of Commissioners Chairman Anggito Abimanyu said the agency had kept its deposit guarantee rate (TBP) unchanged for the period from October 1, 2026, to January 2027.

At commercial banks, full guarantee coverage up to Rp 2 billion extended to 99.94 percent of customer accounts, or about 720.2 million accounts. At BPR/BPRS, 99.97 percent of accounts, about 15.8 million, were fully guaranteed.

Anggito said LPS had handled the liquidation of 14 BPR/BPRS during 2026, with governance weaknesses responsible for most cases. Those banks held total deposits of Rp 1.9 trillion; LPS had paid Rp 643.9 billion in eligible deposit insurance claims.