Bank Indonesia Sees September Trade Surplus as Support for External Resilience

September result beats forecast

Figures released by Statistics Indonesia (BPS) on November 2 put September's surplus below August's US$3.55 billion. It nevertheless surpassed the US$1.9 billion forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts, according to The Edge Malaysia.

At the November 2 briefing, BPS deputy Ateng Hartono reported that September exports totaled US$27.59 billion, an 11.87 percent increase from a year earlier. Imports grew faster, rising 18.41 percent to US$24.23 billion.

Trade outside the oil and gas sector generated a US$5.67 billion surplus. Non-oil and gas exports increased from US$25.62 billion in August to US$26.64 billion in September, supported by animal and vegetable fats and oils, precious metals and jewelry, iron, steel, and electrical machinery. China, the United States, and India remained the leading destinations.

A smaller oil and gas shortfall also supported the overall balance. That deficit fell from US$2.54 billion in August to US$2.32 billion in September because imports declined more than exports, BPS data showed.

Nine-month surplus falls from 2025

Indonesia accumulated a US$10.61 billion trade surplus from January through September 2026, compared with US$33.5 billion during the same period of 2025, according to BPS.

Over those nine months, imports increased 19.67 percent year over year to US$210.63 billion, while exports rose 5.58 percent to US$221.23 billion. Hartono said a US$34.21 billion non-oil and gas surplus offset the US$23.60 billion deficit in oil and gas trade.

BPS identified the main contributors to the nine-month non-oil and gas surplus as animal and vegetable fats and oils, at US$29.31 billion; mineral fuels, US$21.42 billion; iron and steel, US$13.95 billion; nickel and its products, US$9.52 billion; and footwear, US$4.86 billion.

China was the largest market for non-oil and gas exports during that period, taking US$54.17 billion. The United States followed at US$25.39 billion and India at US$15.00 billion.

The year's trade balance has shifted between surplus and deficit. Citing BPS data, Jakarta Globe reported on November 2 that May brought Indonesia's first-ever monthly trade deficit after a six-year surplus streak. The country returned to surplus in July and has stayed in surplus since.

Central bank support and an economist's caution

Bank Indonesia views the continued September surplus as helping strengthen the economy's external resilience. Ramdan Denny Prakoso, executive director of its Communication Department, said the central bank would continue working closely with the government and relevant authorities to protect that resilience and support long-term economic growth.

Irman Faiz, chief economist at Bank Danamon Indonesia, warned that a shrinking trade surplus leaves Indonesia more dependent on foreign capital inflows and more exposed to changes in investor sentiment. He expected the surplus to narrow further before year-end. Danamon retained its forecast that Bank Indonesia's benchmark interest rate would stand at 6.25 percent at the end of 2026.